GCN pt 30 .. The Return and The Composite Operator .

The Return of Activity.

Consider what that might mean !

Also consider

How the markets "Self Organize" seemingly in order->

To do damage to the greatest number of people.

Why ?

Because Markets are only people !

Remember the Totalizator ?

At some stage EVERYBODY HAS to be on the beaten favorite !

The Composite Operator is in a sense our own shadow !

Also consider to what extent the large forces at work contain the smaller.

How the  main current carries along the smaller eddies !

Of course these large forces are acting in the "Now" on our smallest scale charts and we will see the changes on our smallest scale charts.

But certainly the scope and power is visible on our largest !

Look at the 10 box reversal chart

8 columns in the base

8 columns in the Top

 A complete reversal

Many have played a losing hand here !

Consider also that the choicest plays are likely to come from the opportunities

That do not invite participation. That in fact cause some sense of revulsion !

The very opposite of the "Beaten Favorite"

The "in hindsight good thing at very attractive odds" !

We can not make money in hindsight  :-)

And we do not have to !

All we need to do is to keep on with  our primary task .

Of identifying the Turning Points !

Remember  ? ==> "We have much to gain and little to lose"

So consider these charts together.

The 10 Box Reversal and the 1 Box Reversal.

Look at the character of the action of this last column.

Notice the Horizontal formations.

Note the Behavior

For how else will we identify the CHANGE OF BEHAVIOR.

The Turning Point.

Motorway

GCN pt 29-3 OBLIVION and DISTRACTION REALITY

MAPS  and REALITY.

Many use maps

Many use maps of  illusion

Of 

Oblivion and Distraction

Please Review==>

Oblivion and Distraction

Very few USE reality

Note the Real Nature of the Figure Chart.

some see this as it's adaptive nature.

But it really is not adapting.

No one is changing the "TIME" in order that it adapts.

It is TIME.

This phase of action contains Eight Days  ( All that is visible on this chart.)

There are other similar Structural Phases.

That contain less than one day. ( and  what of volume ? )

Time Frame is always the wrong Question, ANSWER and MEASURE !

IT is MOVES that matter. That are real

what is a MOVE ?

What are its components ?

Time is one aspect of a move.

TIME is IMPORTANT

TIME FRAME is really just nothing .

it is only a MAP

Please Review==>

Structure and Process - Configurations 

No one is changing the "TIME" in order that the FIGURE CHART  adapts.

It is TIME.

A MOUNTAIN does not change with the DISTANCES We might view it from

( Within the BOUNDS of the DYNAMICS  ( SCALES ) that DEFINE "MOUNTAIN" )

A Mountain is always  Mountain.

A figure Chart can ignore volume and time.  Because it is volume and time . Esp if you move beyond just the static aspects of a Point and Figure Chart and appreciate it's Dynamic aspects .

Most modern P&F focuses on just the static-- > Formations and patterns SIGNALS. From the static viewpoint the Figure chart appears "adaptive" and an incredibly powerful tool..

But P&F is really about Dynamics HAS THEY HAPPEN and HOW THEY HAPPEN. From the DYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE ==> The POINT and FIGURE chart is just,,,,,,, REALITY . TAPE READING/UNFOLDING.

But REALITY at a particular Resolution. ( THINK ABOUT THIS ESPECIALLY ) The Mountain is ALWAYS the same MOUNTAIN. The RIVER always the same RIVER. We can choose to  look from a HIGHER or LOWER  perspective , that is all.

It still Moves as it will. In it's OWN TIME. NO LAG , NO DEFORMATION . No MAP . Just the reality !

A figure Chart can ignore volume and time !

Because it only seems to.

And it certainly does not HAVE TO ( A TOPIC !  for the continuing series on Market Reality )

Motorway

Dullness -GCN pt 29 -2

Now some points from RDW

Pertinent to the moment

"The more we study volumes, the better we appreciate their value in Tape Reading. It frequently occurs that a stock will work within a three-point range for days at a time without giving one a chance for a respectable-sized ‘scalp’. Without going out of these boundaries, it suddenly begins coming out on the tape in thousands instead of hundreds. This is evidence that a new movement has started, but not necessarily in the direction first indicated. 


The Tape Reader must immediately go with the trend, but until it is clearly defined and the stock breaks its former limits with large and increasing volumes, he must use caution. 


The reason is this: If the stock has been suddenly advanced, it may be for the purpose of facilitating sales by a large operator.

The best way to distinguish the genuine from the fictitious move is to watch out for abnormally large volumes within a small radius. This is usually evidence of manipulation. The large volume is simply a means of attracting buyers and disguising the hand of the operator. A play of this kind took place when Reading struck 159 3/4 in June1909. I counted some 80,000 shares within about half a point of 159 - unmistakable notice of a coming decline. This was a case where the stock was put up before being put down, and the Tape Reader who interpreted the move correctly and played for a good down swing would have made considerable money."

The chart is "Hunting" ( just like a lawn mower engine running out of fuel )

The 3 ( and so  the 5 & 10 ) reversal charts are stationary.

Consider what they means in terms of Waves

Building Up and Down and in terms of various turning points ( time horizons )

Consider also the ease of manipulation and false moves with such dullness.

BEWARE !

"This is evidence that a new movement has started, but not necessarily in the direction first indicated". 

MANY people are apt to regard a dull market as a problem for trading purposes. They claim: "Our hands are tied; we can't get out of what we've got; if we could there'd be no use getting in again, for whatever we do we can't make a dollar". Such people are not Tape Readers. They are Sitters. As a matter of fact, dull markets offer innumerable opportunities and we have only to dig beneath the crust of prejudice to find them.

If the history of the market were to be written, these periods of lifelessness should mark the close of each chapter. The reason is: The factors that were active in producing the main movement, with its start, its climax and its collapse, have spent their force. Prices, therefore, settle into a groove, where they remain sometimes for weeks or until affected by some other powerful influence.
When a market is in the midst of a big move, no one can tell how long or how far it will run. But when prices are stationary, we know that from this point there will be a pronounced swing in one direction or another. There are ways of anticipating the direction of this swing.

 One is by noting the technical strength or weakness  The resistance to pressure mentioned as characteristic of the dull period in March, 1909, was followed by a pronounced rise, leading stocks selling many points higher. This was particularly true of Reading, in which the shakeouts around 120 (one of which was described) were frequent and positive.

 When insiders shake other people out it means that they want the stock themselves. These are good times for us to get in.

 When a dull market shows its inability to hold rallies, or when it does not respond to bullish news, it is technically weak, and unless something comes along to change the situation, the next swing will be downward.

On the other hand, when there is a gradual hardening in prices; when bear raids fail to dislodge considerable quantities of stock; when stocks do not decline upon unfavourable news, we may look for an advancing market in the near future.

No one can tell when a dull market will merge into a very active one, therefore the Tape Reader must be constantly on the watch. It is foolish for him to say: "The market is dead dull. No use watching it today.  Nothing profitable can happen in such a market". 

Such reasoning is apt to make one miss the very choicest opportunities - those of getting in on the ground floor of a big move.

For example: During the previous mentioned accumulation in Reading, the stock ranged between 120 and 124 1/2. Without warning, it one day gave indication (around 125) that the absorption was about concluded, and the stock had begun its advance. The Tape Reader having reasoned before hand that this accumulation was no small investors game, would have grabbed a bunch of Reading as soon as the indication appeared. He might have bought more than he wanted for scalping purposes, with the intention of holding part of his line for a long swing, using the rest for regular trading. As the stock drew away from his purchase price he could have raised his stop on the lot he intended to hold, putting a mental label on it to the effect that it is to be sold when he detects inside distribution.

Thus he stands to benefit to the fullest extent by any manipulative work which may be done. In other words, he says: "I'll get out of this lot when the big boys and their friends get out of theirs". He feels easy in his mind about this stock, because he has seen the accumulation and knows it has relieved the market of all the floating supply at about this level. This means a sharp, quick rise sooner or later, as little stock is to be met with on the way up.

If he neglected to watch the market continuously and get in at the very start, his chances would be greatly lessened. He might not have the courage to take on the larger quantity. On Friday, March 26, 1909. Reading and Union were about as dull as two gentlemanly leaders could well be. Reading opened at 132 3/4, high was 133¼, low 132¼, last 132 5/8. Union's extreme fluctuation was 5/8! - from 180 5/8 to 181¼. Activity was confined to Beet Sugar, Kansas City Southern, etc. The following day, Saturday, the opening gave every indication that the previous day's dullness would be repeated, initial sales showing only fractional changes. Let’s see… B. & 0., Wabash pfd. and Missouri Pacific were up 3/8 or 1/2. Union was an 1/8th higher and Reading 1/8 lower. Beet Sugar was down 5/8, with sales at 32. Reading showed 1100 @ 132¼, 800 @ 3/8, Union 800 @ 181, 400 @ 181, 200 @ 181 1/8, 400 @ 181. A single hundred Steel at 45½ 1/8. B& O 100 @ 109 7/8.

Market dead, mostly single 100 share lots… Ah! Here's our cue! Reading 2300 @ 132½., 2000 @ ½, 500 @ 5/8. Coming out of a dead market, quantities like these taken at the offered prices can mean only one thing, and without argument the Tape Reader takes on a bunch of Reading "at the market." Whatever is happening in Reading, the rest of the market is slow to respond, although N. Y. Central seems willing to help a little – 500 @ 127½ (after ¼). Beets are up to 33¼. Steel is 45 1/8, and Copper 77 ¼ -a fraction better. Reading 300 @ 132/2. Steel 1300 @ 45 1/8, ¼ Union 100 @ 181 Reading 300 @ 132 5/8 Beets 100 @ 33½. Union 700 @ 181½ N.Y. Central 127 5/8, 600 @ ¾… 7/8!…There’s some help coming! Union 900 @ 181½ now Reading 100 @ 132 3/4. Copper 700 @ 71½. Reading 800 @ 132 7/8, 100 @ 133, 900 @ 133, 1100 @ 1/8... Reading 1500 @ 133¼ , 3500 @ 133 ½…not much doubt about the trend now.

The whole market is responding to Reading, and there is a steady increase in power, breadth and volume. The rapid advances show that short covering is no small factor. It looks as though a lot of people are throwing their Beet Sugar and getting into the big stocks. St. Paul Copper and Smelters begin to lift a little. Around 11 A.M. there is a brief period of hesitation, in which the market seems to take a long breath in preparation for another effort. There is scarcely any reaction and no weakness. Reading backs up a fraction to 133¼ and Union to 181 3/8. There are no selling indications, so the Tape Reader stands by his guns. Now they are picking up again… Reading 133 3/8, ½, 5/8, ¾… Union 181 5/8 N.Y. Central 128½ 1/8, 700 @ ¼, Union 1000 @ 181½, 3500 @ 5/8, 2800 @ 7/8, 4100 @ 182 Steel 45 ½…. From then right up to the close it's nothing but bull, and everything closes within a fraction of its highest. Reading makes 134 3/8, Union 183, Steel 46 1/8, Central 128 7/8, and the rest in proportion. The market has gained such headway that it will take dire news to prevent a high, wide opening on Monday, and the Tape Reader has his choice of closing out at the high point or putting in a stop and taking his chances over Sunday.

So we see the advantage of watching a dull market and getting in the moment it starts out of its rut. One could almost draw lines on the chart  (the upper line being the high point of its monotonous swing and the lower line the low point) and buy or sell whenever the line is crossed. Because when a stock shakes itself loose from a narrow radius it is clear that the accumulation or distribution or resting spell has been completed and new forces are at work. These forces are most pronounced and effective at the beginning of the new move - more power is needed to start a thing than to keep it going.  RDW ( Studies in Tape Reading )

Motorway

EXHAUSTION - GCN pt 29 - ENANTIODROMIA

Some quotes to ponder about

ENANTIODROMIA

from that " intrinsic time " philosopher Heraclitus.

( while we await the "RETURN" of activity )

remember==>

"The secret of the whole business lays in the fluctuations " Hoyle ( an intrinsic time practitioner )

Fluctuations

Differences OF Opinion 

Strife

Dynamic Equilibrium

All the same thing

A hidden harmony

(As to  )The chart (it ) displays

Extreme Exhaustion.

Dullness.

A Trading Range. ( Think on it ! )

There is Nothing like an Offensive to completely Exhaust and invite a Counter(offensive).

An Enantiodromia

 If the other side still has the resources :-) .

(consider the lessons of War esp WW1 )

Ponder=>

"It should be understood that war is the common

condition, that strife is justice, and that all things come to pass

through the compulsion of strife."

"Homer was wrong in saying, "Would that strife might

perish from amongst gods and men" . For if that were to occur,

then all things would cease to exist."

"Opposition brings concord. Out of discord comes the

fairest harmony"

"This universe, which is the same for all, has not been

made by any god or man, but it always has been is, and will be

an ever-living fire, kindling itself by regular measures and going

out by regular measures."

"He calls it: craving and satiety."

"In the circumference of the circle the beginning and

the end are common."

"Cool things become warm, the warm grows cool, the

moist dries, the parched becomes moist."

"The hidden harmony is better than the obvious."

consider ==> It is hidden because it is always  coming  into being

through Fluctuation. It never IS , Obvious. For if that were to occur,

then all things would cease to exist.

Value is Slippery

ALL VALUE

Do not cling to an extreme ( view )

least that hidden harmony must become destructive.

In a speculative market, where the laws of supply and demand are operative, we

must have fluctuations in prices.In studying the movements of stocks, it is well to have in mind the old saying,

"Stocks must fluctuate."

MUST

Motorway

GCN pt 28

Another Turning Point ?

The last one marked 1st

Did turn up with increased demand.

But Supply Expanded .

This one is marked 2nd

note the downside count across the .041 line ( after the breakdown )

Gave a Count Objective of .032

We now have Supply That did overcome demand

Being more than met by new demand.

Accumulation ?

Note the Line of NINE .033s

Consider what you see in terms of the blogs on market reality

Consider why the fluctuations move down and then across.

Consider that Demand and Supply  both  are active at EVERY BOX

at the same time, ALL the time.

That Buying waves and Selling Waves

actually OVERLAP and Run in to Each other.

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT

why the fluctuations move down and then across.

Remember What we are trying to identify ?

And what actions we are ready to take ?

DO YOU REMEMBER :-) 

==>

Consider that at turning points

The train is stopped at the station !

In the same way  at the turning points PRICE is stopped in a sense too and liquidity will build .

If it then starts in the wrong direction. 

we should simply step off before it gains too much speed to harm us and if it goes "our way" we then have much to gain.

Motorway

GCN pt 27

1 Box Reversal

That Last Column

(currently at .034)

"Will be watching the .032 level."

Motorway

Market Reality pt 3 - A CREATION STORY

 THEN  PRICES MUST REVERSE .

Think about WHY ? 

Only in Eternity could you find the Infinite.

In any "MOMENT" you will find only the FINITE.

The Extremely FINITE.

All Markets are basically ILLIQUID and Discontinuous. Explosions of activity.

That only last so long. MOMENT to MOMENT.

In any moment , Demand is always absorbing SUPPLY and SUPPLY is always absorbing demand.

Only in Eternity ==> BOTH may well be INFINITE.

But in any moment they are both limited and finite.

Not Everyone wants to or has to BUY and SELL , RIGHT NOW !

NOR CAN THEY.

ONLY those who for one reason or another TIME IS UP.

Price MUST FLUCTUATE

All things being equal :- ) .

The more the Urgent Demand , The Quicker We will have just SUPPLY

The more Urgent SUPPLY , The Quicker We will have JUST DEMAND.

In the MOMENT.

As long as life goes on !  Markets have a life . They Self Organize !

We have a Buyer who having bought before will become a seller after !

A seller who having sold  before will become a buyer after !

As well  =>

One of these will have had their DEMAND or SUPPLY -- MET !

One of these will still have SUPPLY or DEMAND to be MET !

Prices will rise as long as Buyers are more Urgent ( time presses on them )

 We will have a Wave of Buying that has the effect of moving price UP

( Demand Overcoming SUPPLY )

But also has the effect of satiating those Buyers. In the "Moment" Exhausting those Buying .

Moving Price Out of the reach of the contingent DEMAND ( EMPTY SPACES )

and Into the reach of Contingent SUPPLY.

All stock market movements, however large or small, are made up of

buying and selling waves. 

These have a certain duration; they run just so long as they

can attract a following. When this following is exhausted for the time being, that

wave comes to an end and a contrary wave sets in. The latter may attract more of

a following than the former.

"These figures denote the widening character of a move as it progresses and are intended to show how volume, activity and number of transactions expand until, at the end......the following is exhausted"

( note the modification )

Exhaustion = Satiated 

Our columns will rise as long as there are buyers who are more urgent in the moment !

Their own urgency Exhausts them.

NOTE==> There only has to be an excess in that moment. Not an Absolute Excess

So out of an the empty space of contingent possibility.

Demand and Supply Meet. But in an unbalanced way !

Each in turn Exhausting and Satiating  each other IN THE MOMENT.

At the top of an UP column.

Supply will overcome demand ( it has to )

and At the bottom of a down column Demand will over come Supply (it has to )

The Demand in that moment has to become future SUPPLY

The Supply in that moment can only become future DEMAND.

Price by moving UP arrives where contingent supply is waiting.

When the Buying Wave comes to an end 

That Supply has to  auction down into the momentary lack of Demand.

DEMAND creates SUPPLY

SUPPLY creates DEMAND

But not at the same Price

Not for the same contingency.

And this points to the way ahead .

Motorway