Saturday, June 25, 2011

Probabilities--> Mechanical/Discretionary SYSTEMATIC part 2

Now look at these charts and consider PROBABILITIES . Consider is it as simple as this ? 

That ABOVE the Blue Line the Probability of a move UP is greater than a Move DOWN and that  UNDER The Red Line the Probability of a move DOWN is greater than a Move UP !

And to GAUGE the changes and changing  in those Probabilities , ONE just has to count .

SYSTEMATICALLY and  OBJECTIVELY  


(1) The Price movement
(2) The Time elapsed in each movement 
(3) The Comparative lifting power or pressure 
etc.

WHAT MEANING THEN 
Mechanical/Discretionary ?





 Consider is it as simple as this ? .Consider How the Diagonal on a  P&F chart with a meaningful scale ( scaling laws ) ..Defines something very special and unique ..How unlike any lagging indicator  ?...That these Diagonals are drawn ahead of time.  That they project FORWARDS always from a NOW .

They are what make the  Discretionary/Mechanical dichotomy of less import ( in the UNIVERSE of the COMPLETELY REAL )..

The Diagonals in a very real sense are ALL Possible Scaling LAWs combined... The Diagonals are in a very special sense... Counting for us. Counting even what we maybe do not even realize should be counted. ( unknown Scaling LAWS )

How sensitive the Diagonal LINE .How close the action conforms .. reveals something about the usefulness of and relative correctness of a particular resolution...

Consider can  it  be as simple as this ? YES ..IF You want it to be and if the chart and line are both kept sensitive 

Consider that it is the 45 degree movement / Vector that is KEY

What does Sensitive involve......Relative Signs of Weakness & Signs of Strength , Behavior and Change of Behavior ... Ease of MOVEMENT..........And importantly EMPTY SPACES versus TIGHT FORMATIONS... and especially  on small scale charts ==> discontinuities/gaps 

Point and Figure...The chart.. The Point and Figure CHART ( movement/Intrinsic time ) is what makes the Diagonal........This is very important  to realize and understand...

Motorway







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