Monday, December 26, 2011

What is the study of technical analysis?

What is the study of technical analysis?

At it's core is the concept that there are many differences between mkt participants..

This is a very old and a very new concept (For a long time in the middle everyone was assumed to have the same time frame and the same Knowledge
and the same resources. It was called efficient Market Hypothesis.. And was supposed to mean that all analysis was void = An Index Fund).

Some of the most significant differences are that there are the more informed and the less informed.. And that there are stronger hands and weaker hands..

Other differences are time frames and  the size of ones wallet.. etc etc
Risk tolerance etc..

Most importantly is the recognition that all markets are manipulated.

Everyone is withdrawing demand and supply at various times.

There is demand and supply and contingent demand and supply (IMPORTANT).


One of the most valuable groups to follow is those who can move the markets  with both their Knowledge base and their financial resources.

"That those who know more about it than the observer cannot but conceal their future intentions regarding it. Their plans will be revealed in time by the stock's subsequent action. "
1930 Victor De Villiers



At it's core is the recognising of accumulation and distribution ( And now consider the Life Cycle of Crowds and "Following" (again important differences)).

Everyone is trying to sell without pushing the price down while they are doing it... Everyone is trying to buy without pushing the price up while they are doing it..

Accumulating and distributing...selling and buying RISK.. under the cover of Return ( REWARD )...

Trading ranges are about change of ownership and the building of contingent demand (just look at the volume when price leaves a trading range !).

Trends build a following because Why are you going to sell something that is going up?

However those who know more are always revealing their intentions by their buying and selling. So trends end in ranges and ranges are the start of trends.

Across all SCALES ...

so what to measure BY ;-) 

Motorway

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