( always remember to click the chart to expand it ! )
Consider the buying that occurs above and below that "ROW" in those last three days !
Consider also time in one of its aspects We have three .045s
But one is a before and one is after. Consider before and after what !
Also consider Cause and Effect ..
Now we can measure Cause and We can Infer Effect.
We in doing so IDENTIFY ACCUMULATION , DISTRIBUTION or NOTHING.
Now How do we Know the SMART MONEY IS SMART ?
All things tend to flow TWO WAYS
Cause<=====>Effect
What is Cause and Effect ?
Consider these quotes
When new buying or selling prices occur in the markets, the new capital will cause certain chain-reactions that eventually will lead the markets' movements to certain "Image-Price" levels. This phenomenon can be seen as the equivalent of the "Pair Production Effect" in Quantum Physics
Ok What is he getting at ....Some info on Pair production==> Pair production is the formation or materialization of two electrons, one negative and the other positive (positron), from a single pulse of electromagnetic energy.
The ONE THING produces a DUAL EFFECT.
This might help ?
In liquid financial markets, up to 98% of all the trading can be based on speculative
positions and the hedging of those positions.
These positions, being speculative, are temporary, and any opening trade will need to be closed. The closing trade has the effect of inducing a price reversal. Due to the duality of the opening and the closing trade, the price movements are never
fully one sided. At some stage, sooner or later, positions will be closed
and then the (opposite ) price rebounds ( may ) will occur.
Due to the duality of the opening and the closing trade, price movements are never
fully one sided.
The ONE THING produces a DUAL EFFECT.
This is really important ! First Are they all saying the same thing ?
Now how about ==> Cause and effect ... same thing again ? Only Wyckoff says it it three words !
Now look at the chart , note the relationship between the Horizontal and the Vertical .
And think-- We can measure cause to infer effect YES. But we can also measure the effect and hence qualify the cause.
IE We can ask was the money SMART !
If the answer is NO --> Then we need to think Do We want to be HERE !
It is Also why I can say that GCN is not in markup but still in accumulation !
Think of the slopes of the S curve in terms of Cause and Effect at the stages of adoption and following ! Early in the Curve , in the middle and then at the END...
Note How Intrinsic Time. Shrinks and Expands . We need tIME as a Measure of Duration . We also need tIME for other reasons as well..
Something to think about are the 6 Xs into any close more revealing than those prior ? ( if there is not 6 . Then the you have to count into the previous day or how ever many days ! )
More to follow :-)
If Smart MONEY is SMART
THEN we have a certain DYNAMIC that will UNFOLD and we will want to be THERE.
Remember when our P&F chart MOVES it is always an EVENT always SOMETHING
It is "WORK" and Work done is always Energy transferred !
Motorway
Hi Motorway
ReplyDeleteI have enjoyed your many generously,informative postings on Aussie stock forum, TradersLab and this blog. However, I can't say that I understand more than a whisper of it all but nevertheless it has been very thought provoking and continues to bring me back to the well for more and more.
I have been trading for over six years with mixed results (iow - still have'nt found a way to consistently make money without taking undue risks).
For someone like myself - who is neither blessed with exceptional intellectual nor analytical ability - yet is prepared to work methodically towards an end (ie a gradual, sustainable equity incline at something he enjoys, how would you simplify everything you write about into a few rules or pointers.
TIA
Marc - the one legged lumberjack ;-)
Hello Marc ..."For someone like myself - who is neither blessed with exceptional intellectual nor analytical ability - yet is prepared to work methodically towards an end (ie a gradual, sustainable equity incline at something he enjoys"
ReplyDeleteThis is all you need as in personal criteria to succeed. You then need to recognize what the reality of the markets are and work at developing judgement and procedural skills.
Much like any craftsman who masters a skill and becomes proficient in application...
We only need the exceptional intellectual and analytical if we want to then talk about it.
An example are many elite sportsman .. They know the reality of their endeavor and they have superior judgement and procedural skills.
But they need not be exceptional in intellectual nor analytical abilities.
Wyckoff uses an analogy of crossing a busy street. We can not be mechanical because that will remove us from reality.But we have to be systematic and use accurate Judgement and be timely.
First we have to have a clear understanding of what the reality of markets are .IF not we will get lost in the multitude of unreal methods or the many many inferior methods .
Why ? Because there is really only ONE real method at bottom as there is only one Market reality.
Just like in crossing a busy road..
Stay tuned Marc . I will try and say more.
Motorway